‘Above normal’ rainfall, more typhoons seen January to March

MANILA, Philippines — The weather bureau warned of “above normal” rainfall and a higher number of tropical cyclones in the coming months due to the continuing effects of the La Niña phenomenon.

“Periods of cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that started in September 2024 continue to persist and further strengthened, reaching the La Niña conditions threshold in December 2024, as shown by the recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators,” the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said in a statement on Monday.

READ: What looming La Niña means for global temperatures

As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US government, “La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.”

Cyclone activity

Pagasa said La Niña conditions were likely to continue from January to March based on several climate models.

“With this development, higher chances of above-normal rainfall in the January-February-March 2025 season [are] expected, which may cause floods, flash floods and rain-induced landslides,” it said.

“Furthermore, [an] increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine area of responsibility during the period is likely,” it added.

Rapid succession

Last year, the country was struck by six tropical cyclones in rapid succession from October to November, three of them reaching supertyphoon category.

In a study published in December 2024, scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) said the successive typhoons were fueled by human-induced climate change and that “the chance of multiple major typhoons making landfall will continue to increase as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels.”

According to the WWA, global warming has made it 25 percent more likely for at least three Category 3-5 typhoons to make landfall in the country within a year.

(2025/01/08-05:30)