The power play behind Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai alliance: What’s next?

While the blue camp’s alignment with Pheu Thai remains uncertain, how they navigate issues will help shape the stability of the Thai government

In early March, Deputy PM and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is also leader of Bhumjaithai Party, along with the party’s “principal” Newin Chidchob, visited former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra at his Chan Song La residence to address unresolved issues. 

After returning from her visit to Germany on March 8, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra answered questions surrounding the meeting of these three influential figures. She was also present at the meeting. 

Whenever Newin and Thaksin, deemed the patriarch of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, meet, it usually indicates that something significant is afoot. 

Recently ongoing political rifts and power struggles have made Pheu Thai’s key policies progress more slowly than expected, leading to mounting speculation that there might be rifts within the coalition. 

Paetongtarn admitted that all key policies were on the agenda at the meeting, including viewpoints on the future of the coalition and the way forward. She said that though disagreements rose, both sides had agreed on the next step forward. However, her remark “how do we move forward?” may indicate that Thaksin is presenting the Bhumjaithai Party with a crucial decision on their alignment with the government. 

Reports indicate that Thaksin has made a final call, urging all coalition parties to engage in honest and transparent discussions. Experts believe that the Bhumjaithai Party (referred to as the blue camp due to their party colour) is likely to align more closely with the Pheu Thai-led government in the coming months, despite some tension over investigations into the Senate election. 

The Department of Special Investigation (DSI) is investigating potential money-laundering activities related to the Bhumjaithai-heavy Senate, though it is still unclear whether further charges will be pursued.

Given the current political landscape, it seems unlikely that Bhumjaithai will pull away from the Pheu Thai-led coalition, as it has done in the past. A scenario like the one in 2008, when Bhumjaithai broke away from Thaksin to align with the Democrat Party and military-backed factions to install Abhisit Vejjajiva as prime minister, is seen as highly unlikely.The political conditions now are entirely different, leaving very limited room for such a dramatic realignment. A scenario where the blue camp teams up with other coalition partners to form a government led by the People’s Party, with Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut replacing Paetongtarn, appears almost impossible, given the two party’s ideological and political differences.

One key takeaway from the current political climate is that the influence of the conservative bloc, including the military, has diminished significantly. The blue camp is likely aware of its weakened position and understands that negotiation options are more constrained now than during the era of the “3Ps” (General Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prawit Wongsuwan and Anutin Paochinda). Under the “3Ps”, the military had significant leverage in forming the government and securing a parliamentary majority. 

Today’s political landscape suggests that even without the blue camp’s support, the Pheu Thai-led government remains stable. Pheu Thai and its allies made contingency plans when forming the government, recognising that Bhumjaithai as second-largest party held considerable sway. Though the blue camp could cause potential delays or even try to undermine the coalition, a complete rupture seems unlikely in the near future. 

All coalition partners, including Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, are focused on making the most of their time in power. Pheu Thai’s priority is rewriting the chart and pushing for major projects, like the Entertainment Complex Bill and legislation of online gambling. These are expected to be presented to the Cabinet as urgent matters, and the blue camp appears content on these two issues, as it holds power in these areas as well. 

Additionally, the government is working on securing funding to extend its contract to host the MotoGP event in Thailand, which is considered an important win for the blue camp. 

If both parties can maintain a balanced relationship, progress is possible. However, any significant deviation from mutual satisfaction could create instability, depending on how effectively the government manages to meet the needs of all involved.

(2025/03/11-00:00)