Three cases to decide the fate of Thaksin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra in August

Thaksin and Paetongtarn’s legal battles could reach a verdict in August, with implications for Thai politics, including charges under Section 112 and other cases.

The legal battles surrounding Thaksin Shinawatra and his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra may come to a conclusion in August, with the outcomes expected to have a significant impact on Thai politics. Whether the verdicts are in their favour or not, the cases will undoubtedly influence the political landscape.

The first case involves accusations against Thaksin under Section 112 of the Criminal Code (lese majeste charge) and the Computer Crimes Act, following an interview he gave to foreign media in South Korea in 2015, which allegedly insulted the monarchy. 

In June 2024, the Attorney General ordered Thaksin to be prosecuted, and the Criminal Court decided to hold closed-door hearings. Thaksin has also faced conditions on his bail, including restrictions on leaving the country without permission.

On July 16, 2025, the court heard testimony from Thaksin himself, with his legal team stating there were no additional witnesses for the defence. The court has set 22 August 2025 as the date to deliver the verdict.

Thaksin now faces a tense wait, as a guilty verdict, though appealable, could place him in a precarious position, especially given the failed amnesty bill for Section 112. Thus, any hopes of using amnesty to benefit himself are now extinguished.The second case concerns Thaksin’s medical treatment while detained on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital. The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Officeholders has scheduled four witness hearings, with additional hearings set for July 18, 25, and 30, depending on whether more witnesses are called. If the hearings conclude without further doubts, a verdict could be expected in August as well.

The 14th-floor case has seen significant progress, focusing on the testimony of the Department of Corrections officials and the procedures for handling Thaksin’s treatment outside prison, with special attention to the progress notes made by the nurses and doctors who treated him. The main issue is whether his medical condition was truly "critical" or "emergency" to justify his special treatment.

This case presents a vulnerability for Thaksin, as the "fake illness" narrative, driven by conservative networks, could damage his credibility further. The opposition to Thaksin’s legal manoeuvres has been gaining traction, with strong criticism from those opposed to his alleged use of medical excuses to avoid detention.The third case involves the audio clip scandal between Paetongtarn and Cambodian strongman Hun Sen. The Constitutional Court unanimously accepted the petition from senators and, with a 7 to 2 vote, ordered Paetongtarn to cease her duties as Prime Minister.

Paetongtarn has requested an additional 15 days to submit her defence against the accusations from 36 senators, which will extend the deadline to submit the response to July 31.

Afterwards, the Constitutional Court will send the Prime Minister's defence to the petitioners (36 senators) for rebuttal within 15 days. On August 16, the senators will submit their rebuttal of the Prime Minister’s response. The Constitutional Court will then send the rebuttal from the 36 senators to the Prime Minister, who will have the opportunity to amend her defence. Any further amendments must be submitted to the court immediately.

Following that, the Constitutional Court will deliberate on the petition, the defence, and the rebuttals. If all doubts are resolved, a vote will be scheduled, which will not occur less than 15 days after the deliberation. The entire process is expected to take around 45 to 60 days, with the court’s ruling anticipated by the end of August.

As for the Constitutional Court’s decision, if Paetongtarn is found innocent, she will be able to resume full powers as Prime Minister and may reduce the opposition's resistance, which has been attempting to mobilise protests.

However, if the decision leads to Paetongtarn being removed from office, Thaksin and Pheu Thai may need to read the “special signals” and decide whether to nominate Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai’s PM candidate, for a vote to become the new Prime Minister. Alternatively, they may have to shift strategy and select a PM candidate from the coalition government to take the leadership role.

The political fate of the father-daughter duo, Thaksin - Paetongtarn, in August thus becomes a crucial gamble for the Shinawatra family, where the stakes are high in determining whether they will emerge as the "chosen ones" or merely pawns in Thailand's political power game.

(2025/07/19-00:00)