Five key risks threaten Paetongtarn’s government amid mounting tensions

Paetongtarn’s administration faces five major challenges, including corruption allegations, potential Cabinet reshuffles, a political crisis, and ongoing border tensions with Cambodia.

Entering the 10th month of the "State Ship" under Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 31st prime minister, the administration is facing heavy criticism over numerous policies that have yet to be implemented as promised during the election campaign.

Additionally, it has been severely impacted by "political games," including the ongoing issue surrounding the "14th floor" of her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and tensions within the "coalition parties", which may lead to Cabinet reshuffles.

This is further complicated by the ongoing border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia.

Most recently, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) made the decision to accept a case for preliminary investigation (with no subcommittee yet established for further inquiry) involving allegations that the "Paetongtarn government" may have violated the Constitution, specifically Article 144, paragraphs one and two, in relation to the drafting of the 2025 fiscal budget.

The allegations are divided into two main cases:

The first case involves accusations against Prime Minister Paetongtarn, former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the entire Cabinet, the House and Senate committees reviewing the draft budget, and officials involved in drafting the 2025 budget.

More than a hundred individuals are implicated, based on complaints filed by Charnchai Isarasenaluk, a former MP from the Democrat Party; Somchai Swangkarn, a former senator; Chat Tonawanik, a former advisor to the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC); and Nithithorn Lamleua, a political activist, who filed a complaint on April 25.The second case accuses MPs from the Pheu Thai Party, including Saroj Hongchuwet, Phitsanu Hatthasongkraw, and Jakkapong Sangmanee, a former minister at the Prime Minister’s Office and senior official at the Budget Bureau, of violating Article 144, paragraph two of the Constitution. 

The allegations suggest they used their status or positions to intervene in budgetary processes and approve the budget for the "water management project" aimed at addressing drought and irregular rainfall in 2025, amounting to approximately 51.584 billion baht.

The funds were allocated through local administrative organisations (LAOs) for personal or party interests, either directly or indirectly.

Both cases will undergo a 60-day preliminary fact-checking investigation. If there is sufficient evidence, the matter will be referred to the Constitutional Court for a ruling.

If the Court finds the actions to be unlawful, Prime Minister Paetongtarn, the Cabinet, and nearly all MPs and senators in the House could face removal from office.

However, Prasert Jantararuangtong," the Minister of Digital Economy and Society (DES), and a key figure of the Pheu Thai Party, who approved the proposal for the Cabinet to greenlight the 51 billion baht water resource management budget, defended his innocence. He believes these accusations are politically motivated.

Meanwhile, "Pichai Chunhavajira," Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, also responded to the allegations in the first case, stating that the 2025 budget process was conducted in full compliance with the law. However, the risks for the "Paetongtarn government" don’t stop there. Many people may recall the case involving "PN Promissory Notes" (PN Tickets) used in the sale of shares worth over 4.4 billion baht to individuals within "Paetongtarn’s" family.

The "opposition," led by "Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn," a list MP from the People's Party, raised concerns about the legality of this transaction, suggesting that it might constitute a "Concealed legal transaction" to avoid paying taxes on the received amount of 218.7 million baht.

Currently, this issue seems to have faded from the public discourse, despite its importance, as the public had closely followed the developments. The case is still under investigation by two agencies:

The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), to which Wiroj submitted evidence after the heated parliamentary inquiry. The case is currently under preliminary fact-checking.

A key highlight is the Revenue Department, where Wiroj has also filed a complaint with the Tax Appeal Committee for a final ruling on the matter.

Nevertheless, "Pinsai Surasawadi," the Director-General of the Revenue Department and son of "Plodprasop Suraswadi," a prominent figure in the Pheu Thai Party, has stated that they are waiting for the committee’s decision.

When journalists inquired about the timeline for action, Pichai Chunhavajira revealed that the "Advisory Committee" for the matter has not yet been formed, causing the meeting quorum to be incomplete and preventing any further steps from being taken. As a result, the issue remains unresolved to this day.

There is another hot issue under investigation by the NACC, this time regarding the luxury resort "Thames Valley Khao Yai."

"Theerachai Phanthumas," a Bangkok MP from the People’s Party and a prominent member of the "Orange faction", raised the matter in a parliamentary inquiry.

He uncovered evidence that the land deed, located in the Lam Takong self-help settlement area, is within a watershed area that is designated for preservation and restricted from any development or issuance of land titles. The matter is still under preliminary investigation.

Another key issue is the "14th Floor Case," in which the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders has scheduled a hearing for June 13.

The prosecutor, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), will represent the case against "Thaksin Shinawatra," the former prime minister, who was previously convicted in three corruption cases. His sentence was reduced to one year following a royal pardon, and he was released from prison just a few months ago.

However, Thaksin did not spend a single night in prison, as he was transferred to stay on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital from the very first night, citing health reasons. He never returned to prison.

However, as the court considers whether the enforcement of his sentence was in accordance with the judgment and the warrant, the court has the authority to investigate and issue orders as it deems appropriate, under Section 6 of the Act on the Procedure for Trial of Cases Involving Political Office Holders, 2017.

The central issue that is expected to be examined by the court is whether Thaksin’s "imprisonment" complies with the Supreme Court’s verdict. Therefore, to bring the "14th Floor Saga" to a close, all eyes will be on the Supreme Court’s ruling or decision on June 13.

Initially, "Thaksin" will not attend the hearing in person but will assign his lawyer to represent him. Meanwhile, the NACC has prepared witnesses, evidence, and documents for the case.

In a related matter, the Medical Council has decided to punish three doctors who treated "Thaksin" on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital after he was transferred from the Correctional Hospital on the day his sentence was pronounced for the three corruption cases.

Although "Somsak Thepsuthin," the "Special President" of the Medical Council, has the right to veto the council’s decision, the council may still disregard the veto if the reasons are not compelling enough. The final decision on this matter will be made on June 12, just before the Supreme Court’s hearing for "Thaksin" on June 13.

These five risky issues are currently threatening the "Paetongtarn government" as political tensions run high throughout June. These include a potential Cabinet reshuffle that could destabilise the coalition parties, the looming corruption cases involving senators, and the ongoing tense situation at the Thailand-Cambodia border. All of these factors make for a volatile political environment at present.

(2025/06/12-00:00)