16-18 Pct Chance of Mega Quake Predicted off Central Japan

   Tokyo, June 27 (Jiji Press)--Marine active faults off Japan's Kinki western region and Hokuriku central region are projected to trigger an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or larger at a probability of 16 pct to 18 pct within the next 30 years, a government panel said Friday.
   The government's Earthquake Research Committee calculated the probability of such a temblor occurring in any of the 23 active faults and fault zones spanning at least 20 kilometers in the Sea of Japan.
   Following the massive Noto Peninsula earthquake in central Japan in January 2024, the committee released information on the locations and lengths of the marine active faults, as well as the estimated magnitudes of possible quakes from them, in August 2024.
   The probability of a quake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occurring in the western nine faults, mainly off the northern coast of the Kinki region, stood at 4 pct to 6 pct, while that for the eastern 14 faults, including off the Noto Peninsula, came to 12 pct to 14 pct.
   "About 10 pct in the next 30 years is a high figure, signaling that (a large earthquake) could happen while we are alive," said University of Tokyo professor emeritus Naoshi Hirata, who heads the committee. "We hope people will take measures such as making homes earthquake-resistant and securing furniture."

(2025/06/27-20:35)

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