Pheu Thai reshuffles government; Bhumjaithai threatens to become opposition

Pheu Thai pushes for Cabinet reshuffle, offering Bhumjaithai two ministries. Bhumjaithai stands firm, ready to become opposition if Interior Ministry is taken.

Political tension between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai has reached a breaking point as Pheu Thai pushes to take back the Interior Ministry. The decision now rests with Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Prime Minister, to navigate the fallout from this critical standoff. The rift between the two parties could soon see Bhumjaithai stepping into the opposition.

A conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister, held on the evening of June 16 at Thai Khu Fah Building, reportedly revolved around updates on policy and not negotiations. The discussions ended with Anutin reaffirming the earlier agreement that the Interior Ministry would remain under Bhumjaithai’s control.

The following day, Anutin took action by publicly declaring that Bhumjaithai would leave the coalition government if the Interior Ministry was taken away from them.
Bhumjaithai’s strategy

Bhumjaithai’s tactics now appear clear, with a four-step game plan:

1. Shift power to Newin Chidchob: The power play moves to Newin Chidchob, a key figure in Bhumjaithai, followed by Anutin asserting the unity of the Bhumjaithai Party, reaffirming that the party consensus is to keep the Interior Ministry.

2. Threatening to withdraw from the government: Bhumjaithai shows its strength by demonstrating the number of MPs it controls, pushing Pheu Thai to decide whether they will expel Bhumjaithai from the coalition.

3. Playing the victim: By presenting itself as the aggrieved party, Bhumjaithai pressures the government, publicly debating the issue and calling for a public resolution.

4. Waiting for Thaksin’s decision: If Pheu Thai proceeds with its decision to take back the Interior Ministry, Bhumjaithai will use its party mandate to officially withdraw from the government, clearly opposing the current administration.
The 48-hour deadline

After Paetongtarn sent a clear signal requesting the Interior Ministry be returned to Pheu Thai, the proposed reshuffle included offering Bhumjaithai control of the Ministry of Public Health and another Prime Minister’s Office position. Bhumjaithai was given 48 hours to respond, with a deadline set for 3:00 pm on Thursday, June 19.

A few hours after this request, Bhumjaithai made it clear that it would not accept the terms. The party insisted that it would not relinquish the Interior Ministry and stated its readiness to exit the government if the demands were unmet.


Thaksin’s clear stance

This situation signals that Thaksin Shinawatra has made the decision to break with Bhumjaithai, pushing the party into opposition. Calculations show that even without Bhumjaithai’s 69 MPs, Pheu Thai still has enough support in the House of Representatives to maintain a working majority and pursue its key agenda.

The next step would be to reshape the coalition as Bhumjaithai’s eight ministerial seats are taken off the table. This could lead to another round of negotiations among coalition partners to redistribute ministerial quotas and adjust the power balance within the government.


Thaksin targets the “270 Government”

According to the strategy of Thaksin, the next move is to “draw in” opposition votes to bolster the government’s numbers, with the ultimate goal of forming a “270-seat government” to ensure maximum stability.

Currently, there are 495 MPs in the House of Representatives. To pass legislation, a majority vote (at least 248 votes) is required.

Originally, the government coalition (11 parties) held 324 votes. However, if Bhumjaithai is removed from the equation (losing 69 votes), the coalition will consist of 10 parties, reducing the government’s votes to 255.

This breakdown includes: Pheu Thai at 142 votes, United Thai Nation (36), Klatham (26), Democrat (25), Chartthaipattana (10), Prachachat (10), Chart Pattana (3), Thai Ruamphalang (2), Thai Liberal (1) and New Democracy (1).

Therefore, with the government coalition now just 7 votes above the majority threshold, the focus is on the votes the government can still bring in. The target for a “270-seat government” includes MPs who have previously declared their intent to switch sides. These include:


Thai Progress Party: 1 vote from Chaiyamphawan Munpianjitt, a Bangkok MP.
People's Party: 1 vote from Krit Chevathamanon, an MP from Chonburi.
Palang Pracharath Party: 1 vote from Kanchana Jangkhwa, an MP from Chaiyaphum, who announced her move to Klatham Party.


In addition to this, there is a strategy to “absorb more votes” by negotiating for 9 additional votes from Palang Pracharath and 3 votes from Thai Sang Thai.

An important condition in this equation is to secure the 36 votes from United Thai Nation (UTN), which is currently divided into two factions. The goal is to consolidate these votes, particularly the 18 votes from the faction of Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, and Akanat Promphan, the Minister of Industry and the party’s Secretary-General.


Opposition regrouping

The opposition bloc, originally holding 171 seats, is likely to grow as Bhumjaithai’s 69 seats are added to their ranks, pushing the opposition total to 237 seats. However, tensions remain in the opposition, especially within Santi Promphat’s faction from Palang Pracharath, who could complicate the dynamics.

In addition, the alignment of former Democrat Party figures like Suthep Thaugsuban could further strengthen the opposition's case, particularly as they use personal networks to pull additional MPs from UTN and Thai Sang Thai into the fold.


Looking ahead

The House of Representatives will open its session on July 3, and the political landscape may very well reach a breaking point. If Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai cannot resolve their differences, we could see Bhumjaithai solidify its position in the opposition. Upcoming debates, such as the 2026 Budget Bill, will become major battlegrounds as the coalition recalibrates.

Further, issues like the Thai-Cambodian border dispute and the entertainment complex bill, which includes provisions for casinos, could escalate tensions, especially with Bhumjaithai’s continuing involvement in the Senate vote scandal.

The political chess game continues, and with both sides holding their "trump cards," the upcoming months could see dramatic shifts in Thailand’s political future.

(2025/06/18-00:00)