Paetongtarn’s possible resignation: A question of survival or no escape?

Speculation rises over Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s possible resignation before the Constitutional Court ruling on the "audio clip" case, which could end her PM status. However, her resignation may not be a true "escape," as she still faces other cases.

As August progresses, political observers are keenly awaiting the fate of the country's leader, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, in the ongoing case involving the leaked "audio clip" of a conversation between her and Cambodian Senate President, Hun Sen, on June 18, 2025. 

The critical question is whether Paetongtarn's status as Prime Minister will be terminated according to Article 170(1)(4) and Article 160(4) and (5) of the Constitution. 

The Constitutional Court is scheduled to hear witnesses for the petitioners on August 21, 2025, with a ruling expected on August 29, 2025.

Speculation has been rife that Paetongtarn may resign before the Court delivers its verdict, with reports suggesting her absence from two consecutive Cabinet meetings as a sign of this possibility. 

While some have suggested that her resignation might be a way out, similar to the case of former Minister Pichit Chuenban, who resigned before the Court ruled on his qualifications, there are key differences between the two cases.

Pichit was appointed as a minister in April 2024. Subsequently, 40 Senators filed a petition to the Constitutional Court, raising concerns that Pichit did not meet the required qualifications. As a result, he resigned on May 21, 2024, citing the reason that his resignation would prevent any negative impact on the administration. He served in the position for a total of 24 days.

In Pichit’s case, the legal process had not yet begun. He resigned before the Constitutional Court decided to accept the petition, whereas Paetongtarn’s case is already in the midst of hearings, with just two sessions remaining before the ruling.

To clarify the timeline: Pichit resigned on May 21, 2024, and the Constitutional Court accepted the petition on May 23, 2024, regarding whether the positions of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and Pichit had ended under Article 170(1)(4) and Article 160(4) and (5) of the Constitution. 

On the same day, the Court ruled not to accept the petition concerning Pichit, as he had already resigned before the case was fully considered.

In Paetongtarn’s case, even if she resigns before the Court’s final ruling, it may not lead to the dismissal of the case as in Pichit’s situation. Legal experts interpret that even if her position ends, the Constitutional Court is still bound to rule on the case, as the legal implications persist.

Moreover, the case of Paetongtarn differs from Pichit’s in that she may not be able to escape the legal consequences, as there is still a parallel petition in the case under review by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). This petition involves serious allegations of a breach of ethical standards.

The NACC accepted the petition on June 23, 2025, and according to Saroj Phungramphan, the NACC Secretary-General, the case is still in the early stages of review. If a few details need investigation, the process may not take long. However, if there are complex issues to address, the timeline will follow the standard procedure. 

If the investigation is not completed within six months, the NACC must report any delays and the reasons behind them.

Additionally, there is the "budget diversion case", in which the NACC has agreed to review the matter of transferring a budget of 35 billion baht from state-owned banks into the central budget, potentially for use in a 10,000 baht digital wallet scheme, which could violate Article 144 of the Constitution.

Therefore, despite the possibility that Prime Minister Paetongtarn might choose to resign, the other petitions and legal matters will not stop automatically.

Given the ongoing legal battles, even if Paetongtarn resigns, the other petitions remain unresolved.

Thus, we must closely monitor the situation as Paetongtarn faces these challenges. The current situation is still a 50:50 chance.

If the outcome is “positive,” meaning Paetongtarn retains her status as Prime Minister, the government can continue to run the country, addressing various pressing issues.

However, if the result is “negative” and the Court rules that Paetongtarn must step down as Prime Minister, politics will face a significant turning point, leading to a new process to select a new Prime Minister.

Currently, the list of potential candidates within political parties includes Chaikasem Nitisiri from the Pheu Thai Party, Anutin Charnvirakul from the Bhumjaithai Party, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga from the United Thai Nation Party, and Jurin Laksanawisit from the Democrat Party.

It is crucial to watch developments closely, as the government remains in a precarious position, evident from the budget vote, which, despite being a key law, passed with barely more than half of the votes. 

This is similar to the mention of Chaikasem, who is being discussed in the context of Pheu Thai's power dynamics, which seeks to prevent a shift of power.

At the same time, new coalitions and government formulas are emerging, with rumours circulating that Gen Prayut could be named as Prime Minister once again, reflecting the Deep State that may be resurfacing.

Additionally, the possibility of dissolving parliament remains a significant option, even though it has been discussed sporadically.

All of these developments highlight the shifting political landscape, which may soon reach a critical turning point. While the outcome remains uncertain, we can expect clarity shortly.

(2025/08/20-00:00)