Premium Vietnamese rice expected to be potential solution to Japan's deepening rice crisis

As Japan is grappling with its worst rice shortage in decades, soaring prices and depleted reserves have turned Vietnam, one of the world's top rice producers, into a crucial part of Tokyo's food security solution, especially with the introduction of premium low-emissions rice.

Rice prices in Japan have doubled over the past year, with standard five-kilogram bags now exceeding 4,000 yen (US$28) and premium varieties like Koshihikari reaching nearly 5,000 yen($35).

Supermarket shelves sit empty, and national reserves have plunged to a record low of 1.53 million metric tons--400,000 metric tons short of demand.

This crisis is the result of multiple overlapping factors.

A heatwave in summer 2023 reduced both quality and yield, while inflation pushed consumers toward rice as a more affordable staple.

Post-COVID recovery in the food service and tourism sectors and a record-high influx of foreign residents in 2024 further strained supplies.

Panic buying surged following the Nankai Trough earthquake warning in August 2024, worsening the shortage.

Deep-rooted issues in Japan's agricultural policy also contributed to the rice crisis.

For decades, the Japanese government has paid farmers to reduce rice cultivation to keep prices high.

Meanwhile, the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives, which dominate rice distribution, lack flexibility to respond swiftly in competitive market conditions.

In February this year, the Japanese government released 210,000 metric tons of rice from emergency reserves, but logistical bottlenecks--especially in milling brown rice into white rice--limited distribution.

As of April 27, only 10 percent of this supply had reached markets.

In a rare move, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries decided to sell state-held rice reserves through discretionary contracts, in which the Japanese government sets the price of the grain.

The agriculture ministry's shift from its previous stance of not controlling rice prices highlights the crisis severity.

With this backdrop, Vietnam is emerging as a potential lifeline.

As the world's fifth-largest rice producer and a major exporter, Vietnam offers scale, consistency, and experience in meeting global demandparticularly with Japonica rice varieties suited to Japanese consumers.

However, Japan's strict import standards, especially for pesticide residue, remain a key barrier.

Meeting these demands requires highly specialized cultivation techniques and significant investmentoften yielding lower productivity and limiting the volume available for export.

To bridge this gap, Vietnam and Japan could pursue deeper agricultural cooperation, including technical support, joint seed development, and investment in advanced milling and quality control.

This could help Vietnam expand its supply of premium rice tailored to Japan's market while strengthening bilateral ties.

Vietnam recently became the first country in the world to export low-emissions rice, shipping 500 metric tons to Japan, a Vietnam Food Association (VFA) executive told Tuoi Tre (Youth) newspaper on Sunday.

Priced at $820 per metric ton, this variety more than doubles the market rate for five-percent broken rice, which currently sells for $393-395 per metric ton.

"This shipment aligns with global sustainability trends. If Japanese consumers embrace it, the ripple effect could attract attention from other markets," said the VFA executive.

While a second shipment has not been announced, the VFA considered the initial deal a positive signal from Japans eco-conscious consumer base and a major step toward product diversification.

Tran Van Nam, a Hanoi-based exporter of agricultural products, said that global buyers are increasingly seeking diversified sources and higher-quality rice.

"Low-emissions rice will definitely be part of our premium portfolio for markets like Japan, the Philippines, and Europe," he said.

As of early this month, Indian five-percent broken rice was offered at $380-386 per metric ton, while Thai rice of the same grade sells for $410.

Vietnam's low-emissions rice stands out for its price and environmental credentials, helping local exporters secure a more competitive position in the premium segment.

In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam's average export price was $516.4 per metric ton, down 18.7 percent year on year.

The Philippines remained the top buyer of Vietnamese rice, with a 41.4-percent market share, followed by Ivory Coast with 11.9 percent and China 10.3 percent.

Notably, Vietnam's rice exports to Bangladesh surged over 515 times compared to last year, while Indonesia's purchases plunged nearly 98 percent, according to the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Environment.

Minh Duy - Le Long - Thao Thuong / Tuoi Tre News

(2025/06/10-18:36)