Thai stocks at 15-20 year low, investors urged to wait for political clarity

Thai stocks are at their lowest in two decades, with investor confidence shaken by domestic political uncertainty. Experts recommend waiting for clarity before investing.

Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, CEO of TISCO Securities, revealed that Thai stocks are currently at their "lowest" point in the last 15-20 years, comparing the situation with historical data.

However, he noted that it's difficult to compare the pricing of Thai stocks to other markets, as each stock market has different characteristics. For example, some markets have a higher concentration of tech stocks or greater government control.

Given the current situation, he expects the Thai stock market to continue declining, as investor confidence is "very low" due to concerns about domestic political factors. These uncertainties may impact negotiations regarding the Trump tax policies, as well as potential changes in the country's political landscape, which still need to become clearer.



"Previously, external uncertainties pressured the Thai stock market, but the Thai economy isn't in bad shape. It’s just sluggish due to lower-than-expected foreign tourist numbers and the uncertainty around Trump’s tax negotiations.

Now, however, the uncertainty stems from internal political issues in Thailand, causing a loss of confidence, which is affecting the stock market. Yesterday, we saw emotional selling, and Thai stocks are truly undervalued at this point," he explained.

Regarding the political resolution options that could affect the stock market and the economy, analysts have evaluated three possible scenarios:

If the Prime Minister resigns, it would be the best scenario for both the Thai economy and stock market, as it would prevent further delays. The economy could continue moving forward with stimulus measures and the budget, which would help stabilise Thailand's weak economy.Dissolving the lower house, however, would not be a viable solution for the Thai economy and stock market at this time. It would create a vacuum, disrupting stimulus measures, the budget, and tax negotiations. If only a caretaker Prime Minister remains, it could further delay these processes.

If the Prime Minister stays on, but coalition parties withdraw, leaving a slim majority government, the ability to implement policies, particularly economic stimulus measures and the budget, could be compromised. However, if progress is made in these areas and tax negotiations become clearer, this could help stabilise the situation. Ultimately, the key issue will be whether the government can overcome resistance to regain public trust. This situation still requires further clarification.

For now, Thai stock investment strategies should focus on waiting for short-term recovery. It is advised to monitor the political situation and opt for dividend-paying stocks with yields of 6-7%.



Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, Executive Vice President of Research at Asia Plus Securities, stated that the current Thai stock prices are “extremely low,” having fallen from a PE ratio of 17 times five years ago to 11 times today.

The Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) and earnings yield are both attractive at 6%, with dividends around 4-5%. Despite these appealing figures, Thai stocks are not being purchased, as investor confidence has been undermined by the ongoing political situation in Thailand, which now outweighs concerns over the trade war and the Middle East conflicts.Over the past two days, the Thai stock market has seen very low volume, with minimal selling pressure. The only selling activity has come from investors who recently entered the market but are now pulling back due to heightened political uncertainty.

The power now lies in the hands of the Prime Minister and the government to decide whether to continue, and how, but the situation remains unclear and difficult to predict.

Terdsak noted that no matter what direction the political situation takes, if it leads to delays in economic stimulus measures or the approval of the national budget, this will negatively impact the Thai stock market. Given the already low economic growth in Thailand, the stock index could drop below 1,056 points (which is the level affected by the Trump tax policy, taxing at 36%).

Therefore, he recommends a "wait and see" investment strategy for Thai stocks. Investors should wait for more clarity on how Thailand's political situation unfolds, particularly whether the government will continue, how the ruling coalition will evolve, and whether the social media backlash will have any impact. The key will be whether the economic stimulus measures and the national budget can proceed.

"It’s better to wait and see. We need to wait for clarity on several issues. We’re at a transitional point, and we must wait for political clarity in Thailand, especially regarding how economic stimulus measures will be implemented, whether the budget can proceed, and whether the Trump tax negotiations can be concluded by July 9," he concluded.

(2025/06/20-00:00)