Thai Retail Sector Sees Robust Growth, Driven by Online Boom

Digital shift propels market expansion as Thailand's economy adapts

 

Thailand's retail market expanded by a healthy 6.02% in 2024, reaching a total value of 4.51 trillion Baht.

This growth mirrors a global trend, with the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) of the Ministry of Commerce reporting that online sales are increasingly driving the sector's expansion, both domestically and worldwide.

The TPSO's "2024 Retail Business Situation Report" indicates that the global retail market hit approximately $18.60 trillion in 2024, a 1% increase from the previous year. 

This rise was predominantly fuelled by the Asia-Pacific region, with e-commerce acting as the primary catalyst. Meanwhile, physical, brick-and-mortar retail outlets experienced a slight dip in sales.

Between 2019 and 2024, a staggering 96% of global retail sales growth came from the proliferation of e-commerce marketplaces. 

The United States remains the world's largest retail market by sales, with the US and China (the second-largest) together accounting for 43% of total global retail sales. 

However, Switzerland led the world in retail sales per capita in 2024.

Looking ahead, the report forecasts continued global retail growth, with an average annual rate of 2% between 2024 and 2029. 

By 2029, the global retail market is expected to exceed $20.8 trillion. A significant 64% of this growth is projected to come from the Asia-Pacific, as consumer behaviour increasingly shifts towards digital channels. 
  

Consequently, online sales are predicted to make up 74% of all retail sales growth. The penetration rate of e-commerce is expected to climb from 22% in 2024 to 28% by 2029. 

Notably, South Korea is poised to become the first country in history in 2025 where over half (50.3%) of its retail sales value comes from online channels. 

By 2029, China is anticipated to overtake the US as the world's largest retail market.

While Thailand's 2024 retail market of 4.51 trillion Baht still saw its value predominantly from offline channels, the proportion of online retail has surged consistently. 

It grew from 20.45% in 2022 to 23.50% in 2024, marking an astonishing 379% increase compared to 2019. Conversely, offline retail grew by a modest 0.2% during the same period.

The report also highlighted the employment landscape within the Thai retail sector, noting a substantial workforce in provincial areas. In 2024, the number of retail employees rose by 1.96% from 2023 to 2,975,903 people. 

The sector also saw a 0.33% increase in operators, reaching 922,126 businesses, with 99.77% of these being Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs).
  



 

The TPSO forecasts continued expansion for Thailand's retail sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.5% between 2024 and 2029. By 2029, the Thai retail market is expected to be worth 5.61 trillion Baht.

Several positive factors are set to contribute to this growth, including the ongoing rise of online commerce, the return to normal levels of tourism, and government stimulus policies such as the "digital wallet" scheme and "soft power" initiatives. 

However, the sector must contend with potential challenges. These include economic volatility, high levels of household debt, and a consumer trend towards spending only on essentials. Furthermore, competition within the Thai retail market is expected to intensify, with both domestic and international players vying for market share.

(2025/07/06-00:00)