Thai-Chinese Chamber of Commerce survey: Thai GDP growth forecast at 1.5-1.8% for 2025

The Thai-Chinese Chamber of Commerce has forecast Thailand’s GDP growth for 2025 to be between 1.5% and 1.8%. Respondents to the Chamber's survey have urged the government to stimulate the tourism sector to alleviate the economic slowdown and explore new markets for exports.

Narongsak Phutthaprommongkhon, President of the Thai-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, commented on the reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, which have caused panic among exporters worldwide, particularly in China. 

While Trump has given trading partners a 90-day negotiation period until July 9, 2025, Narongsak said it is unlikely that negotiations will conclude with all countries within this timeframe. 

In a survey comparing the impacts of Trump's tariffs and the COVID-19 pandemic on trade, 39% of respondents felt that the US President’s measures had a significantly more severe impact than the pandemic. Moreover, 26% believed the tariffs were far more harmful than the pandemic.

The survey revealed that 45% of respondents felt the tariffs had already resulted in a considerable slowdown in trade, while 36% observed only a slight impact. Interestingly, 8% of respondents saw this as an opportunity to improve trade.

Regarding the US tariff negotiations, 22% of respondents expect the tariff rate to rise, but at a lower level than previously announced in April, due to pressure from US consumers and producers.

Meanwhile, 15% of respondents believe the US-China agreement to impose tariffs (55% on China and 10% on the US) will remain in place, and 14% think negotiations will extend beyond the 90-day period.

The survey also identified the three most important measures Thailand could propose in negotiations with the US: reducing customs duties, opening new agricultural markets such as for soybeans and animal feed, and enforcing laws to prevent third-country transshipment of goods destined for the US via Thailand.

Respondents also expressed concerns about the industries most affected by US tariff hikes. These include the automotive and parts industries, processed food and seafood, tourism, electrical appliances, electronics, steel, and energy sectors.The survey indicated that the ongoing US-China trade war and the US tariff measures have negatively affected the global economy, with concerns that this could worsen the economic outlook for Thailand. Respondents listed the following top three concerns:


A significant decline in Chinese tourists until the end of 2025, which poses a risk to economic recovery.
The potential flooding of the Thai market with Chinese goods that would normally be sold in the US, which could take market share from Thailand’s exports.
Increased scrutiny of Thailand by the US if China uses Thailand as a manufacturing base for exports to the US.




Tourism, a key driver of the Thai economy, has already seen a 32.7% drop in Chinese visitors during the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, with only 1.95 million Chinese tourists visiting. 

However, 54% of respondents expect the number of tourists in the second half of 2025 to be lower than the 3.3 million visitors of the previous year, while 39% believe it will remain similar.

Given the challenges posed by the slowdown in tourism and the trade outlook, 52% of survey respondents expect Thailand’s GDP growth to range between 1.5% and 1.8%, while 26.5% predict growth will be below 1.5%. A total of 78.5% expect growth to be lower than 1.8%.

Respondents suggested two main measures for the Thai government:


Accelerate tourism stimulus measures to mitigate the economic slowdown.
Seek new export markets while pushing for successful negotiations with the United States and implementing measures to reduce financial costs and support product pricing stability.

(2025/07/09-00:00)