Leptospirosis deaths suggest gaps in health access – data expert

MANILA, Philippines — Some of the country’s poorest and remotest regions, which have fewer health facilities, have logged more leptospirosis deaths than infections in recent years, suggesting that many cases may be going unrecorded, a data expert said.

In his analysis, Dr. Rogelio Alicor Panao, associate professor at the University of the Philippines and INQUIRER Metrics data scientist, examined these regions' case fatality ratios (CFRs), or the number of deaths out of reported cases.

“The BARMM (Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao) and Soccsksargen regions have only a handful of recorded leptospirosis cases, yet these registered more deaths than infections,” Panao noted.

[inq_metrics title="Unequal health systems hit poor regions hardest" iframe="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GIKeB/19/"]

READ: Leptospirosis cases drop, but dengue on rise again

“The math does not add up, possibly due to severe cases and fatalities being the ones that are captured, while the actual number of infections slips through and never reaches official counts,” he explained.

This is despite other regions such as Metro Manila, Central Luzon, and Western Visayas consistently logging the highest number of leptospirosis cases nationwide, Panao added.

To support this, he cited that the CFRs in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Soccsksargen, and BARMM have exceeded the number of actual cases recorded in recent years.

“Soccsksargen in 2020 reported just one case, but it had four deaths. Caraga in the same year had eight cases and 14 deaths. BARMM, with only one case each in 2020 and 2021, reported two deaths in both years,” Panao explained.

“These distortions are not statistical quirks. They suggest underreporting where, possibly, only the most advanced cases and fatalities make it into official records, while many infections go undocumented,” he added.

These figures also reflect the data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showing the number of deaths and leptospirosis cases from 2012 to 2022.

Indeed, BARMM recorded only one case each in 2020 and 2021, but reported two deaths due to the infection. On the other hand, Metro Manila or the National Capital Region logged 64 cases and 12 deaths in 2020 and 59 cases and 10 deaths in 2021.

Panao pointed out that Metro Manila’s CFR remains lower despite having thousands of cases. He noted that “this possibly reflects stronger surveillance and health system reach,” citing experts.

“The incomplete reporting is possibly creating a false map of the disease: the leptospirosis situation in regions with better health systems appears milder, while under-resourced regions' status looks deadlier than it really is,” he said.

Last August 9, the Department of Health (DOH) recorded 2,396 leptospirosis cases across the country since June 8, following the six storms this year.

The DOH has not released comparative data about leptospirosis in previous years, but the figure already represents more than half (55.5 percent) of the 4,575 cases reported from January to September last year.

By October, the agency logged 5,050 cases.

To date, the DOH has not released whole-year data on leptospirosis cases last year (or earlier years) and only releases incomplete data to warn the public when local government units report surges in their areas.

On Saturday, however, the DOH reported that the country's daily average of leptospirosis cases dropped from 200 a day to just 10 a day in the past week.

“Leptospirosis cases went down to 10 cases per day from August 10 to 14, compared to the almost 200 cases a day during the week of August 3 to 9,” the DOH said in a statement. /atm

(2025/08/21-06:30)

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